Should I Aim at the Pin or the Middle of the Green?
TL;DRStop firing at pins. The data on dispersion is brutal and your ego will get over it.
Your dispersion at 150 yards is bigger than you think. Aiming at a tucked pin means half your shots end up short-side, in a bunker, or off the green. Aiming at the middle means most of those same shots land on the green — and your putting handles the rest.
The dispersion math
| Player | Dispersion (ft) | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Tour pro | 18 | Can attack most pins |
| Scratch | 22 | Selective on tucks |
| 5 handicap | 26 | Middle is correct most of the time |
| 10 handicap | 30 | Aim middle. Almost always. |
| 15 handicap | 38 | Aim middle. No exceptions. |
Source:DECADE Golf shot-pattern modelling and Mark Broadie's Every Shot Counts.
When attacking the pin is correct
- Pin is in the middle third of the green.
- Your typical miss bias leaves you on the green even if you miss.
- Short-side miss is into a bunker you putt well from (rare).
- It's a wedge in your hand and your dispersion shrinks accordingly.
FAQ
Do pros aim at the pin?+
Less often than TV makes it look. Tour players aim at the middle on roughly 60% of approaches and only attack pins where their dispersion fits the safe miss.
What's my approach dispersion as a 10 handicap?+
From 150 yards, a 10 has a roughly 30-foot left-right dispersion. From 175, it's closer to 40 feet. Aim accordingly — at a pin 15 feet from an edge, you'll short-side yourself often.
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